建筑活动骤减引发担忧，但市长和白厅因'极端解决方案'面临阻力

萨迪克·汗（Sadiq Khan）早已意识到伦敦的住房建设存在问题。但上周一家咨询公司公布的数据揭示了该问题的严重程度，引发了伦敦市政厅和白厅的全面警觉。

莫利奥尔（Molior）的分析显示，首都的新房建设量已大幅下滑。目前仅有4万套住宅在建——仅为正常水平的三分之二——且今年前三个月，建筑商仅开工了3248套私营部门住宅单元。

一位市政厅消息人士表示："当前经济形势对住宅建设的影响堪称一场完美风暴。" 一位白厅高级官员补充道："情况紧急，我们必须立即采取行动。"

新建筑突然倒塌的原因错综复杂。

萨迪克·汗就任市长后，将开发商需配建的保障性住房比例从20%提高到35%才能获得快速审批资格；若开发项目位于工业或公共用地上，这一比例则提升至50%。

他还收紧了保障性住房的定义，使其主要适用于最廉价的出租房以及通过共有产权计划出售的房产。

这一政策曾一度奏效。尽管整体住房建设水平有所下降，但社会福利房和经济适用房的数量却有所增加。2023年，伦敦的建筑商们开工建设的保障性住房超过11.6万套，地方政府资助建设的公屋数量更是创下自20世纪70年代以来的新高。

然而随后经济形势开始造成负面影响。

由于首都未开发土地稀缺，开发商往往需要先拆除现有建筑，因此当地建设成本一直居高不下。而2022年底通胀飙升，加之2023年全年利率急剧上升，使得开发商更难为启动新项目找到合理的商业依据。

政策研究中心（CPS）住房与基础设施主管本·霍普金森对政府数据的分析显示，2021年至2023年间，住房建造成本上涨了21%。

此外，格伦费尔塔火灾发生后，建筑商还面临一系列新增成本和法规。

大型企业已同意出资拆除并更换其建筑外墙覆层，且自明年起须向一项额外的建筑安全基金注资，用于支付未达成此类协议企业的相关费用。此外，垃圾填埋税也正大幅上涨。

然而，最大的问题或许是许多开发商无法通过新建建筑安全监管局的审批。该机构负责审批所有高度超过18米的建筑项目，但目前处理申请的速度严重滞后。数据显示，高达92%的申请遭遇积压，企业平均需等待36周才能获得审批结果。

这一切都加剧了伦敦的住房 affordability 危机。

英国公共政策研究所（CPS）研究发现，伦敦房价中位数是当地薪资中位数的11.5倍以上。这一比例远超英格兰地区的7.6倍均值，更是显著高于国家统计局认定的5倍房价收入比警戒线——该机构指出超过此阈值即属居民难以负担水平。

报告发现，普通租房者预计需将收入的40%至50%用于支付房租。

该市还面临无家可归者危机。周四公布的官方数据显示，截至6月底，伦敦有创纪录的74,720户家庭（包含97,140名儿童）居住在临时住所中，其中三分之一的家庭已等待安全且经济适用的住房至少五年。

伦敦32个行政区去年每日为应急住房提供的资金估计达550万英镑，这笔日益难以为继的支出或将导致部分市政委员会濒临实质性破产。

正是在这一背景下，住房大臣史蒂夫·里德与汗正试图寻找解决方案。但他们的提案尚未正式提出就遭到了反对。

尽管增加保障性住房开发商补贴及允许地方政府提供更大税收优惠的计划已引发一些不安，但真正激怒众多工党议员和活动人士的，是削减保障性住房配额的提议。

伦敦一位工党议员表示：“我所在的议会只会以此为借口，建造更多雅皮士公寓，吸引更多人涌入该地区，从而迫使现有居民支付更高的租金。”

无家可归者慈善机构Crisis的首席执行官马特·唐尼（Matt Downie）表示，如果部长们降低经济适用房的建设目标，那将“非常令人担忧”。他补充说：“就在几个月前，部长们还制定了雄心勃勃的计划，要建设新一代的社会保障房和经济适用房。我们敦促他们坚持这一重点，并与各组织合作，采取明智的方案来实现这一目标，而不是降低雄心。”

但其他人认为，这场危机的严重程度需要采取此类措施。一位政府官员表示：“这是一个极端的问题，我们寻求极端的解决方案无可厚非。”

Collapse in construction activity causing alarm but mayor and Whitehall face pushback over extreme solutions

Sadiq Khan has known for a while that he has a problem with housebuilding in London. But last week a consultancy published figures about the scale of the problem, which prompted full-scale alarm in City Hall and Whitehall.

The analysis from Molior showed that new housebuilding in the capital had collapsed. Only 40,000 homes are under construction C two-thirds the normal rate C and in the first three months of the year builders started work on just 3,248 private sector units.

It is a perfect storm of economic conditions impacting housebuilding, said one City Hall source. Its an emergency, we cannot wait to act, added a senior Whitehall official.

The reasons behind the sudden collapse in new building are complex.

When Khan became mayor he increased the amount of affordable housing that developers had to include to qualify for the fast-track approval process from 20% to 35%, or 50% for developments on industrial or public land.

He also tightened the definition of affordable housing so it applied mainly to the cheapest rented homes and those being sold under shared ownership schemes.

For a while it worked. Although overall housebuilding levels fell, the number of social and affordable homes went up. In 2023, builders began work on more than 116,000 affordable homes in London and more council houses than at any time since the 1970s.

But then economic conditions began to take a toll.

Building in the capital has always been expensive given there is not much undeveloped land and developers often have to knock down existing buildings first. But when inflation spiked in late 2022, followed by a sharp rise in interest rates throughout 2023, it became much harder for developers to make a business case for starting new projects in the city.

An analysis of government figures by Ben Hopkinson, the head of housing and infrastructure at the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS), shows that between 2021 and 2023, the cost of building homes rose by 21%.

Added to this, builders were facing a host of new costs and regulations following the Grenfell Tower fire.

The biggest companies have agreed to pay to remove and replace cladding on their buildings, and from next year will have to contribute to an additional building safety fund to pay for those companies that have not made such agreements. A tax on landfill is also increasing steeply.

However, the biggest problem could be that many developers cannot get their plans through the new Building Safety Regulator, which has to approve any projects over 18 metres tall but is struggling to process applications. Data from the BSR shows 92% of applications are being held up, with companies having to wait an average of 36 weeks for a decision.

This all contributes to Londons housing affordability crisis.

The CPS found the median home in London was more than 11.5 times the median salary. That is compared with a ratio of 7.6 across England, and far above the level of 5, which is deemed unaffordable by the Office for National Statistics.

The report found the average renter could expect to pay between 40% and 50% of their income on rent.

The city also has a homelessness crisis. Official figures published on Thursday showed there were a record 74,720 London households, containing 97,140 children, living in temporary accommodation at the end of June. A third of these households had been waiting for secure and affordable housing for at least five years.

Londons 32 boroughs spent an estimated 055.5m a day funding emergency housing last year, an increasingly unsustainable bill that threatens to push some councils to the verge of effective bankruptcy.

It is against this backdrop that Steve Reed, the housing secretary, and Khan are trying to find a solution. But their proposals are facing pushback even before they are launched.

While plans to increase subsidies to developers for affordable homes and to allow councils to offer greater tax breaks are causing some consternation, it is the idea of reducing affordable housing quotas that has infuriated many Labour MPs and campaigners.

One Labour MP in London said: My council will just use this as permission to build more yuppie flats and bring more people to the area so the current population can pay higher rents.

Matt Downie, the chief executive of the homelessness charity Crisis, said it would be really concerning if ministers were to water down affordable housing targets. Only a few months ago ministers set out ambitious plans for a new generation of social and affordable housing. We urge them to stick to this focus, and work with organisations on sensible options to make this a reality, without rowing back on ambition, he added.

But others believe the scale of the crisis warrants such measures. One government official said: This is an extreme problem, and we make no apologies for looking at extreme solutions.